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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)

acus11 kwns 252145
spc mcd 252144
maz000 - vtz000 - ctz000 - nyz000 - njz000 - paz000 - 252315-

mesoscale discussion 0213
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0344 pm cst sat feb 25 2017

areas affected ... eastern ny ... northern nj ... northeast pa ... western
portions of ma/ct ... and far southern vt

concerning ... severe thunderstorm watch 40...

valid 252144z - 252315z

the severe weather threat for severe thunderstorm watch 40

summary ... strong to severe storms will continue to track
east/northeast the next few hours. damaging winds, marginally severe
hail and a tornado are possible with these storms.

discussion ... a line of strong to severe thunderstorms with some
embedded supercell features will continue to shift east/northeast
into the evening hours. though the thermodynamic environment
continues to be marginal, strong deep layer shear has been more than
adequate for maintaining intense convection. surface winds
downstream of the line are backed and latest mesoanalysis and vad
wind profiles indicate 0 - 1km srh values greater than 250 m2/s2,
lending to periodic low level rotation, and a tornado cannot be
ruled out. midlevel lapse rates are more marginal than further south
toward the chesapeake where some large hail has been noted, but an
axis of slightly steeper lapse rates extends northward in nj and
western new england. this could allow for continued marginally
severe hail at times with stronger cells. expect the line to slowly
diminish in intensity with loss of daytime heating into the evening
hours. a downstream watch across portions of new england does not
immediately appear necessary, though trends will be monitored

.. leitman.. 02/25/2017

... please see www. spc. noaa. gov for graphic product...

attn ... wfo ... box ... btv ... okx ... aly ... phi ... bgm ... ctp...

lat ... lon 43777428 43687272 43127255 40117420 40177626 43777428