National Weather Service
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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
acus11 kwns 190134
spc mcd 190133
iaz000 - moz000 - nez000 - mnz000 - sdz000 - 190330-
mesoscale discussion 0684
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0833 pm cdt sat may 18 2013
areas affected ... sern sd / ern ne / far nwrn mo / wrn ia / far swrn
concerning ... severe potential ... watch likely
valid 190133z - 190330z
probability of watch issuance ... 80 percent
summary ... strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
localized large hail will likely move newd from ne into sern sd and
adjacent portions of ia/mn. the area is being strongly considered
for a severe thunderstorm watch.
discussion ... organizing broken qlcs over s - cntrl ne and the ne
sandhills will probably continue to consolidate and mature as it
moves ne across nrn and ern ne over the next few hours. surface
observations over n - cntrl ne and sern sd show an area of pressure
falls with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s deg f. a pressure
fall/rise couplet appears to be developing with 1 - 3 mb/hr rises
noted behind the storms over ne.
the 00z/19 oax raob showed very steep h7 - h5 lapse rates /9 deg c per
km/ resulting in a moderately unstable airmass downstream of the
ongoing activity. forecast soundings over sern sd exhibit a similar
moisture/lapse rate profile. 25 - 35 kt 0 - 6 km shear will facilitate
organized line segments potentially capable of isold severe
downdrafts and localized large hail.
.. smith/corfidi.. 05/19/2013
... please see www. spc. noaa. gov for graphic product...
attn ... wfo ... dmx ... eax ... fsd ... oax ... abr ... lbf ... unr...
lat ... lon 43190016 44269840 43769565 41009467 40129599 42869819